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Hi!  I'll be sharing my research interests here.  Please comment!

I'll also be posting old essays from the early 2000s.

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Short cash Half-Life and Shortsighted Social Planning

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Here's some research on inflation rates throughout history, for consideration in what kind of economic conditions help societies engage in long-term projects, which I assume are some of the fruits of social health.  I'm interested if the basic relationship shows up historically, and also in estimating what actual inflation rates tend to work well. In summary, I find while a society may grow with cash half-lives from 30yr down to a couple years, that lower rates are destructive: half-lives shorter than a year or two coincide with historical examples of market collapse in the short term, or social collapse if carried on.  In contrast, a cash half-life significantly greater than 30-40 years coincides with important periods of flourishing. I find it more intuitive to work in terms of cash half-life than inflation rate.  To convert from a 2% rate, or InflationRate=0.02 (which the US Fed targets but never delivers) to a half-life, means to find how long it takes 2% inflation to...
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Bitcoin vs Swift

Crypto has been in the news a lot the past year, but now traditional banking is too since SWIFT is cutting off Russian banks.  So I've been comparing them on the metrics: SWIFT [1]  - Moves ~50M transactions/day [3]  - Totaling ~$5T/day [4]  - Connects ~11k banks globally [1]  - 50% $, 30% €, 5% £ [5]  - $60T+ global supply [6] Crypto [2]  - Moves ~10M transactions/day [7]  - Totaling ~$50B/day [8]  - Connects ~15k nodes globally [9]  - 40% ₿, 20% Ξ, and many others [10,11]  - $2T global supply [10]  - 320M wallets (2022) [15] There are also other traditional networks [1], like China's CIPS that connects ~1k banks globally, and Russia has its own as well, the SPFS; bet that’s coming in handy. Crypto also has other majors like Ether, Ripple, Cardano. [10,11] But while SWIFT is almost completely dark (unless you’re the NSA, Snowden claims), you can watch BTC rain down live [12] or go create your own [13]. Crypto looks surprisingl...
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